Recently, according to the preliminary retail sales estimates by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the narrow definition of the passenger vehicle retail market in November is expected to be around 2.08 million units, a month-on-month increase of 2.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 26.0%, influenced by the low base in the same period last year. Approximately 820,000 new energy vehicles will be sold, with a month-on-month increase of 3.6% and a year-on-year growth of 36.4%, achieving a penetration rate of about 39.4%.
CAAM data shows that in October, the narrow definition of the terminal retail of passenger vehicles reached 2.033 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, a month-on-month growth of 0.7%, consistent with previous expectations. Approximately 772,000 of these were new energy vehicles, with a penetration rate of 37.8%, a year-on-year increase of 37.7%, and a month-on-month increase of 2.0%, providing strong support to the automotive market. As November enters the year-end sprint stage, the heat in the traditional fuel vehicle market continues moderately, while the new energy vehicle market is expected to reach a historical high driven by new product effects and competitive prices, providing strong support for the overall automotive market in November. Various automakers are leveraging promotions during the "Double Eleven" and the Guangzhou Auto Show in mid-November to increase attention. The automotive market in November is expected to maintain a relatively high level of prosperity. However, the market response during the "Double Eleven" period is generally average, with relatively cool demand, and the terminal has not yet shown the potential for a sales outbreak.
Terminal surveys indicate that the overall market discount rate for passenger cars in mid-November is about 19.0%, with terminal discounts largely unchanged from the end of October (18.9%). After experiencing multiple rounds of "price wars," manufacturers and dealer networks are under significant pressure. To protect profits, some manufacturers are slowing down the pace of price declines, making structural adjustments to terminal competitive policies. However, the overall market prices continue to decline. The retail targets for leading manufacturers (with a retail volume share of over 80%) at the beginning of the month show a slight month-on-month increase.
According to the research results of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in October was 1.70, a month-on-month increase of 1.7%. Car companies are fully preparing for annual targets, and dealers are intensifying efforts to deliver vehicles, leading to a slight increase in inventory levels. Under the influence of the mass delivery of new products and the imminent adjustment of the purchase tax policy, the enthusiasm for the new energy vehicle market has significantly increased. At the Guangzhou Auto Show starting from November 17, a large number of eye-catching products will be launched, and the new energy vehicle market will become a major support for market growth at the end of the year.
