"Electric vehicles will move towards high-voltageization comprehensively. Achieving 1 second for 1 kilometer, 200 kilometers in 5 minutes charging, and a refueling-style charging experience has become a reality." On February 27th, Hou Jinlong, Director of Huawei and President of Huawei Digital Energy, stated at the 2024 Huawei China Digital Energy Partner Conference, "It is expected that in the next ten years, the number of electric vehicles in use will increase tenfold, thereby driving a rapid and substantial increase in the demand for charging volume and charging piles."
For a long time, range anxiety has been considered a pain point hindering the industrialization of electric vehicles. Tesla initially reduced range anxiety by increasing battery capacity. Nowadays, newly launched vehicles from automakers typically have a range of around 600 kilometers, or even up to 1000 kilometers, and range is no longer the biggest burden. However, difficulties in finding charging stations and slow charging still deter a significant portion of consumers.
In recent years, supercharging has become increasingly popular among automakers. Data shows that in 2021, there were only 8 models in the market supporting supercharging, but by 2023, the number of supercharging models had rapidly increased to over 140.
"This means that in the future, newly released models that do not support supercharging may fall behind. It will be difficult to sell cars." He Bo, President of Huawei Digital Energy's Data Center Energy and Key Power Product Line, said, "In the next 3-5 years, all vehicles on the market may be equipped with supercharging. Users are accustomed to the experience of 'one second per kilometer' charging. As a result, the fate of old charging piles installed previously is to be replaced by supercharging piles."
Recently, Huawei launched a fully liquid-cooled supercharging station, with a maximum output power of 600 kW and a maximum current of 600A, achieving a charging speed of one second per kilometer, which is infinitely close to the experience of refueling. Currently, Huawei's fully liquid-cooled supercharging covers a charging range of 200-1000V, compatible with all models.
For the charging network industry, the future undoubtedly holds a golden age. Huawei predicts that in the next 10 years, the number of passenger cars will increase from 18 million in 2023 to 180 million in 2034, growing tenfold in a decade. Commercial vehicles will also increase from 2.44 million to 22.34 million in the next decade.
Previously, third-party charging pile operators had little interest in fast-charging technology, partly because the cost of supercharging piles was too high and the return on investment for businesses was too long. However, the situation is changing.
"In the past, companies would measure the cost of equipment based on how much per watt, which is a mistake because the charging network is a dynamic business. If it can help companies earn more money, then its unit price is just a small factor. The charging volume over the lifecycle is more important." He Bo believes that single-station CAPEX (capital expenditure) is no longer the most critical KPI; the charging cost per kWh is a scientific indicator of returns.
He Bo summarized that future supercharging piles will present four major trends:
Trend One: Supercharging demand will penetrate from single scenes to multiple scenes, realizing three major benefits.
In He Bo's view, the supercharging experience is irreversible. Users who are used to supercharging will be reluctant to use slow charging. Therefore, in the future, supercharging stations will enter scenarios such as public transportation, heavy trucks, logistics, industrial parks, and even county towns. Slow charging and poor-quality piles actually waste social resources.
Trend Two: Building a safe and reliable charging network.
"For batteries, safety has always been a huge challenge. Huawei is also conducting joint research with battery manufacturers on battery safety technology. In the future, our investment in this area will become larger and larger. For example, each charging should conduct a deep inspection of the battery, assess the lifecycle status of the battery during each charging, and evaluate the residual value of the battery, providing some reference for second-hand cars. In addition, protection will be provided for the charging process because the highest probability of a battery catching fire is during the one or two hours of charging."
Trend Three: Integration of light storage charging to build an electric grid-friendly charging network.
The electricity demand of the charging network is continuously increasing. According to data, the charging volume was 0.3 trillion kWh in 2023, and it is expected to reach 1.2 trillion kWh in 2028 and 270 billion kWh in 2035. This poses a significant challenge to the power grid, with difficulties in obtaining power from various scenarios and high investment costs. The combination of light storage charging undoubtedly becomes a high-quality solution, spawning more business models.
As for costs, Hou Jinlong, Director of Huawei and President of Huawei Digital Energy, mentioned a set of data. Huawei's photovoltaic power generation in parks has a fixed cost of only 20 cents. It is sold to the grid for 40 cents. However, if it is sold through charging piles, it may be sold for more than one yuan. Therefore, it provides a higher price sales model for photovoltaics.
Trend Four: Integrated development of vehicles, piles, and networks, and the charging network enters full intelligence.
The "double randomness" of the power grid is continuously increasing, and the charging network will become an organic part of the new power system dominated by new energy. With the maturity of business models and technology, the interaction between vehicles and networks will go through three important stages: from one-way orderliness to one-way response, and finally to bidirectional interaction. In the future, car owners will not only buy electricity from the grid to charge, but also buy electricity at low prices and sell electricity to the grid at high prices, which will spawn more business models and further promote the development of electric vehicles and charging networks.
Currently, Huawei is jointly establishing the Supercharging Alliance with car manufacturers and top partners, allowing charging operators to have more high-quality electric vehicle traffic and providing better experiences for car owners. In addition, Huawei plans to deploy over 100,000 Huawei fully liquid-cooled ultra-fast charging piles in more than 340 cities and main highways across the country by 2024, hoping to provide high-quality charging wherever there are roads, enabling car owners to travel both in cities and rural areas.
