According to media reports, analysts' calculations suggest that the number of pure electric cars on Norwegian roads is expected to exceed gasoline cars by the end of this year or early 2025, a first in any country.
The main driver of this shift is the significant incentives provided by the Norwegian government, partly attributed to Norway's vast wealth in oil and natural gas. However, despite this, analysts believe it will still take a few more years for the number of pure electric cars in Norway to surpass diesel cars.
With a population of 5.5 million, Norway aims to be the first country to stop selling new gasoline and diesel cars by 2025. At the beginning of this year, nine out of every ten new cars sold in the country were pure electric cars.
If more countries emulate Norway's approach, the time for global peak oil demand could come sooner than expected. The International Energy Agency believes this peak will be reached before 2030, with cars and vans accounting for over 25% of oil demand.
However, Norway's electrification transition comes with substantial investments. Consumers purchasing pure electric cars are exempt from taxes on internal combustion engine vehicles, and the country has invested heavily in building public charging stations.
Data from the Norwegian Public Roads Administration shows that as of March 15th this year, out of 2.9 million cars in Norway, pure electric cars accounted for 24.3%, while gasoline cars were at 26.9%. This means that the inventory of gasoline cars in Norway is nearly 76,000 more than electric cars, far below last year's sales of pure electric cars (104,590 units).
Robbie Andrew, senior researcher at the climate change think tank CICERO, stated, "If the trend continues over the next 12 months, and considering that the sales of pure gasoline cars are now negligible, then by this time next year, the number of pure electric cars on Norwegian roads will surpass pure gasoline cars, likely achieving this goal by the end of this year."
Andrew added that since there are nearly 370,000 more diesel cars than pure electric cars on Norwegian roads, it may take another three to four years for the number of pure electric cars to surpass diesel cars.
Last year, with rising interest rates and the government cutting some tax incentives, new car sales in Norway generally declined, including a roughly 25% decrease in pure electric car sales. However, data from the Norwegian Road Federation (OFV) shows that in January, pure electric cars accounted for a record-breaking 92.1% of total sales in the country. The latest OFV data shows that in March, the market share of pure electric cars in Norway was 89.3%, with new car sales down 49.7% year-on-year.
Ingvild Kilen Roerholt, head of transportation research at the Oslo-based think tank "Zero," stated that despite recent declines in sales, she is "very confident" that Norway's pure electric car sales this year will exceed 76,000 units. She also predicts that by 2029, the number of pure electric cars in Norway will surpass the total of gasoline and diesel cars.
