In recent years, various industries have continuously strengthened their commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting green, low-carbon development. As major carbon emitters in the transportation sector, heavy trucks are urgently transitioning to new energy. In the first half of this year, a total of 11,581 new energy heavy trucks were sold, an increase of 13.65% year-on-year. While this shows steady growth, it is still short of industry expectations, making the breakthrough of new energy heavy trucks a focal point in the entire industry.
According to Electric Vehicle Resources, in the first half of this year, sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 11,581 units. These trucks were sold to all 31 provinces and autonomous regions across the country. Six of these regions, namely Hebei, Hunan, Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, and Guangdong, had sales exceeding 600 units each. Hebei Province had the highest sales at 2,597 units, accounting for 22.42% of the total sales from January to June.
Analysis suggests that the adoption of new energy heavy trucks is faster in cities with higher pressures for pollution control and those with a significant proportion of high-energy-consuming industries. Taking Hebei as an example, its industrial structure is dominated by heavy industries such as steel, coal, and ports. Under the push of "pollution control" policies, enterprises in the region were among the first to adopt new energy heavy trucks, a key factor behind its sales leadership.
Local policies remain a critical variable in the fluctuations of new energy heavy truck sales. Guided by the national "dual carbon" goals, various regions have introduced policies, establishing pilot projects for new energy heavy trucks and offering incentives like subsidies.
On October 28, 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China announced a list of 11 pilot cities for new energy vehicle battery-swapping, with Yibin, Tangshan, and Baotou designated as pilot cities specializing in heavy trucks.
On June 1, 2023, the Chongqing Municipal Finance Bureau and the Municipal Economic Information Commission issued a notice about subsidies for charging and battery swapping infrastructure in 2023, specifying that swapping stations that provide shared battery-swapping technology services and operate with multiple brands and models will receive a one-time construction subsidy of 350 yuan/kW based on the rated charging power of the battery-swapping equipment.
The introduction of a series of favorable policies has promoted the application of new energy heavy trucks. On the other hand, high-pollution, high-emission enterprises face policy constraints. Under strict regulation and financial incentives, new energy heavy trucks have become the best replacement option for fuel-powered trucks. Therefore, companies in this sector should focus on cities with favorable policies and markets in desperate need of shedding their "pollution cap." Keeping an eye on national and local policy trends is crucial to breaking the current deadlock in the market for new energy heavy trucks.
From the best-selling models in the first half of this year, battery-swapping electric semi-trucks accounted for 2,579 units sold, 22.27% of the total sales, securing the top spot. Pure electric tractors (excluding battery-swapping) had sales of 1,453 units, accounting for 12.55% of the total, taking second place. Battery-swapping electric dump trucks had 1,387 units sold, making up 11.98% of total sales, coming in third.
New energy tractors have always been the flagship of the new energy heavy truck market. Statistics show that new energy tractors sold a total of 5,528 units in the first half of the year, with battery-swapping models accounting for nearly 50% of the market share. This is primarily because, after market validation, battery-swapping models can generate economic value for logistics transport enterprises that have high tractor demand.
The optimal use scenario for battery-swapping tractors is daily multiple round-trip fixed-route transport, such as steel plant transportation, coal-fired power plant transport, and port transport. Battery-swapping tractors can be re-energized in 3-5 minutes through battery swapping, meeting the needs of point-to-point high-frequency transport, which is the premise for users choosing battery-swapping models.
Furthermore, for users, operating any type of new energy heavy truck requires considering the TCO (Total Cost of Ownership), which includes the vehicle purchase cost, lifecycle operating costs, and production costs lost during downtime.
The battery-truck separation business model of battery-swapping heavy trucks has significantly reduced the initial vehicle purchase cost. Secondly, the overall operating costs of battery-swapping models need to consider battery rental fees, battery-swapping service fees, road tolls, insurance fees, etc. Battery-swapping heavy trucks have undeniable advantages in re-energizing, and with certain cities imposing fewer road restrictions on new energy heavy trucks, users can achieve high-frequency transport, further reducing operating costs. Lastly, maintenance of battery-swapping heavy trucks is relatively simple. Users who lease batteries do not have to overly consider the residual value issues caused by battery degradation. The exit mechanism is relatively secure, leading to high market demand.
Although the market sales of battery-swapping heavy trucks are high, for new energy heavy trucks to "break the deadlock" and seize the high ground in the market, they still need to start from the ecosystem companies themselves: enhance their innovative capabilities, increase R&D investment to optimize product structure, provide cost-effective products to users, and focus on precision marketing strategies to attract more users to operate new energy heavy trucks. It's worth mentioning that in recent years, whether it's power battery companies or vehicle manufacturers, they have been deeply cultivating their products, breaking various constraints, and empowering the operation of new energy heavy trucks.
On June 12, targeting the heavy truck battery-swapping field, CATL (Ningde Times) launched a one-stop heavy truck chassis battery-swapping solution — Qi Ji battery swapping, which includes the Qi Ji battery swap module, Qi Ji battery swap station, and Qi Ji cloud platform. The Qi Ji battery-swapping module has passed more than 200 safety tests, and the battery system's service life can exceed 15,000 times. The Qi Ji battery swap station can support the flexible assembly of 1 to 3 battery swap modules, and the entire battery swapping process takes just a few minutes. The Qi Ji cloud platform relies on big data to significantly improve operating efficiency.
In June of this year, at the Yutong Heavy Truck full range of new product launches, Yutong Heavy Truck's new high-capacity underbody battery-swapping tractor, equipped with a 513-degree underbody battery, has a full-charge range of over 340 kilometers, can swap batteries in 4 minutes, and breaks the mileage limitation of pure electric vehicles in high-speed operation.
On July 26, themed "Heart Forward, Together for the Future," the Ouman (Howo) new product launch was held in Huairou, Beijing. At the event, Ouman officially released a series of bottom battery-swapping heavy trucks. Through forward R&D, Ouman created bottom-swapping models, solving issues like the low safety performance, short cruising range, poor comfort, and small cargo space of pure electric heavy trucks.
The marketing model of new energy heavy trucks differs from the traditional fuel-powered heavy truck marketing model. The primary users of new energy heavy trucks are not individual drivers, but fleets and transportation companies. They need to consider not only the vehicle purchase price and performance but also operating costs in TCO. As heavy trucks are an essential "means of production" in the industrial and commercial fields, they have high cost sensitivity. Therefore, the key to "breaking the deadlock" lies in optimizing TCO and increasing the operational efficiency of new energy heavy truck users. From the current market share of various types of new energy heavy trucks, the high market penetration rate of battery-swapping heavy trucks also confirms this. From this perspective, optimizing the operating costs in TCO is one of the key factors to break the stalemate.
New energy heavy trucks are an ecosystem. The entire chain involves vehicle manufacturers, energy providers, financial enterprises, and more. The optimization of operating costs requires coordinated cooperation among all players in the industry.
Take battery-swapping heavy trucks as an example. The business model of battery-truck separation in battery-swapping heavy trucks shows advantages in terms of vehicle price, convenience of re-energizing, and the residual value of the vehicle. However, there are still many issues in actual operation. Users of battery-swapping heavy trucks focus on stable capacity chains, and the layout of battery swapping stations is a key element of a stable capacity chain. But compared to widely distributed gas stations, the heavy investment nature of building battery swapping stations, the complexity of the approval process for their construction and layout, the difficulty of interoperability due to non-unified battery-swapping standards, and the high demands of mobilizing the upstream and downstream industry chains make wide layout construction a challenge. There is still a significant gap in the number of battery-swapping stations currently invested in and in use.
For example, in Tangshan City, according to local media reports, by the end of 2022, over 5,000 battery-swapping heavy trucks had been put into operation in Tangshan, ranking first in the country in terms of operational volume. However, only about 30 battery-swapping stations had been built, with those in operation clearly lacking in service capacity.
For current users, battery-swapping heavy truck operations are mainly concentrated in enclosed scenarios such as ports, mines, steel plants, urban construction waste transport, and short transport scenarios. The layout of battery swapping stations is significant for stabilizing the supply chain. Therefore, for the entire new energy heavy truck industry chain, whether it's charging and swapping models or fuel cell models, it's essential to further promote the construction of charging and swapping stations, hydrogen refueling stations, and other infrastructure, and promote the unification of battery-swapping standards to stabilize the supply chain and reserve more room for optimizing user TCO costs.
In conclusion:
The current new energy heavy truck market still mainly focuses on battery swapping. However, with technological upgrades and improvements, various segmented models continue to emerge to grab market share, and market competitiveness is gradually strengthening. Although the growth rate of new energy heavy trucks in the first half of 2023 did not meet expectations, all companies involved in the new energy heavy truck ecosystem should still enhance their R&D innovation capabilities, further optimize product performance, aim for precise marketing strategies in the market, and quickly layout the construction of charging and swapping stations and hydrogen refueling stations to stabilize transportation services, as these are key to "breaking the deadlock."
In the future, with the continuous introduction of national favorable policies and the gradual warming of the economy, the national bulk cargo transportation market will also recover. A broad market space for new energy heavy trucks is about to open, and we look forward to it!
