According to Bloomberg, S&P Global Mobility estimates that global light vehicle sales are expected to see a modest increase next year due to improved automobile supply. However, global production may decline as automakers aim to control inventory levels.
S&P Global Mobility predicts that global light vehicle sales, including passenger cars, SUVs, and pickups, will grow by 1.7% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 89.6 million units, partly due to continued improvements in supply chain stability. In the United States, light vehicle sales are expected to rise by 1.2% year-on-year to 16.2 million units.
At the same time, global light vehicle production is forecasted to decline by 0.4% year-on-year to 88.7 million units. In the U.S., production may drop by 2.9% year-on-year to 9.9 million units, while China and South America are the only regions expected to see growth. This indicates widespread concerns in the global automotive industry about the instability of vehicle demand.
One potential factor contributing to the decline in global production levels next year is former U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose higher tariffs on imported vehicles and his plan to eliminate U.S. electric vehicle subsidies.
Mark Fulthorpe, Executive Director of Global Light Vehicle Forecasting at S&P Global Mobility, stated in a press release:
"With global trade slowing and potential countermeasures against tariffs by various countries, the landscape of global automotive production is set to change significantly."
Nevertheless, S&P Global Mobility believes that despite uncertainties surrounding U.S. policy support for electric vehicles, global EV sales will maintain their growth momentum next year. By 2025, global EV deliveries are expected to rise by 30% year-on-year to 15.1 million units, accounting for approximately 17% of total global light vehicle sales.
